Retirement2 min read · Updated October 21, 2026
Can I retire? The 4% rule with real numbers
A plain check of whether your savings will last, using the 4% rule, Social Security and a worked example with $1.5 million and $60,000 of spending.
The 4% rule
Withdraw 4% of your pot in year one, then raise that amount with inflation. It comes from historical US data for a 30-year retirement. For a 40-year retirement, many people use 3.5%.
Example 1: it works
Pot $1,500,000. Spending $60,000. Social Security $28,000. You need $32,000 from the pot, a draw of 2.1%. At a 4% real return the pot does not run down.
Example 2: it does not
Pot $1,000,000, spending $60,000, no other income. That is a 6% draw. At a 4% real return the money lasts about 28 years. To last 35 years you would need about $1,119,877.
Count Social Security
Get your estimate from ssa.gov. Claiming later raises it. Some people retire early and bridge the gap with savings until it starts.
Common questions
How much do I need to retire?
About 25 times your yearly spending from the pot, less guaranteed income.
Is 4% too high?
For a long retirement, many people plan for 3.5%.
What about healthcare before 65?
Budget separately. It can be a large cost before Medicare.