Tax2 min read · Updated October 21, 2026
Will I owe tax or get a refund? How to check your withholding
How to check whether your paycheck withholding matches your tax, how to fix it with a W-4, and a worked example with a refund of about $4,850.
How withholding works
Your employer withholds tax from each paycheck based on your W-4. At tax time your actual tax is compared with what was withheld. More withheld means a refund; less means a bill.
A worked example
$95,000 pay, $6,000 pre-tax, single. Taxable income after the $16,100 standard deduction is $72,900. Federal tax: $10,750. With $600 withheld on 26 paychecks, $15,600 is withheld, a refund of $4,850. With $300 withheld, $7,800 is withheld and you owe $2,950.
How to fix it
Give your employer a new W-4. Use step 4(c) to add a flat extra amount per paycheck, or step 3 for credits such as children. Check again mid-year after a raise, a bonus or a second job.
Why high earners owe
Bonuses, a second income and investment income are often under-withheld. A dual-income couple filing jointly can owe even with “conservative” withholding. Run the check after every big change.
Common questions
Is a big refund good?
No. It means you lent the government money interest-free.
Will I be penalised for owing?
You may owe an underpayment penalty if you owe more than a safe-harbor amount. Check IRS rules.
How do I change my withholding?
Give your employer a new Form W-4.